The Black Death devastated English towns in the mid-fourteenth century, wiping out more than half of the population in places like Nottingham. Historians have long believed that many urban centers faced prolonged decline after the plague, struggling to recover for centuries. However, a new study by historian Scott C. Lomax challenges this assumption. Using a fresh approach that combines court records, tax lists, and archaeology, Lomax finds that English towns, driven by migration and economic shifts, rebounded much sooner than previously thought.

Rethinking Population Decline

For decades, scholars have relied on taxation records, such as poll taxes from 1377–1381 and Tudor lay subsidies from the early sixteenth century, to estimate medieval urban populations. These sources provide only snapshots of population levels at isolated points in time, making it difficult to track trends over the years following the Black Death. Many historians have assumed that these figures reflect long-term population decline, but Lomax argues that this view is misleading.

Tax records are incomplete and often exclude large portions of the population, such as women, children, and tax evaders. Historians have attempted to correct for these omissions by applying multipliers, but the results vary widely. For example, Nottingham’s estimated population for 1377 ranges from 2,171 to 3,508 depending on the method used, while estimates for 1524 range from 1,180 to 2,065. These inconsistencies cast doubt on the reliability of tax data alone.

Lomax’s study takes a different approach, integrating multiple types of historical evidence to gain a more accurate picture of population recovery.

A New Method for Tracking Population Change

Rather than relying solely on taxation records, Lomax examines a wider range of sources to reconstruct demographic trends:

• Court records: Borough court rolls and leet court documents track named individuals involved in legal disputes and economic transactions. Increases in the number of recorded names suggest population growth.
• Tax lists: While limited as standalone sources, tax records can still indicate demographic trends when combined with other data.
• Archaeological evidence: Urban expansion, changing land use, and the presence of buildings or abandoned areas offer clues about population shifts.

By analyzing these sources together, Lomax identifies patterns of population growth that challenge the idea of long-term urban decline.

Did the Black Death Cause a Permanent Crisis?

The Black Death of 1349 killed an estimated 50–60% of Nottingham’s population, a catastrophe that disrupted daily life and economic activity. However, Lomax’s research reveals that the town began recovering much sooner than previously believed.

Court records show a sharp increase in new residents arriving in Nottingham as early as the 1350s. Many of these individuals are identified by toponymic surnames (e.g., de Beeston, de Sneinton and de Derby), indicating they were migrants from nearby areas. Lomax finds further waves of migration in the late 1300s and early 1400s, suggesting that population recovery was not a slow, drawn-out process but instead occurred in stages, driven by newcomers seeking economic opportunities.

Signs of Urban Growth

Lomax also challenges the long-held belief that large sections of Nottingham were abandoned for centuries after the Black Death. Some historians have pointed to archaeological evidence suggesting that parts of the town, particularly in the eastern periphery, remained unoccupied well into the early modern period. However, by reexamining both tax records and court documents, Lomax finds that these areas were being repopulated much earlier than expected.

Property ownership records indicate that previously vacant buildings were reoccupied by the late fourteenth century. Additionally, tax assessments show increasing numbers of taxpayers in areas that were once thought to have remained empty. Rather than a town in permanent decline, Nottingham appears to have adapted to demographic losses relatively quickly.

At the same time, the study reveals social shifts within the town. By the fifteenth century, poorer residents were using the borough court less frequently, possibly because rising legal costs made access to justice more difficult for the lower classes. This suggests growing economic disparities, even as overall population levels rebounded.

While this study focuses on the town of Nottingham, Lomax believes that it could also be applied to other urban areas in medieval England, He writes:

The methodology requires testing with other towns which have the required sources, in particular court rolls and reports of major archaeological excavations. Other towns with court rolls include London, York, Norwich, Lincoln, Lynn, Chester, Exeter, Colchester, and Yarmouth. If its application is successful elsewhere, this approach can make a significant contribution, by generating more case studies, to enhance our understanding of urban population change during the late medieval period.

The article, “Understanding late medieval population change in English towns: an alternative approach,” by Scott C. Lomax, has been been published online by the journal Continuity and Change. Click here to read it.

Scott C Lomax is a PhD researcher at the University of Nottingham. Click here to view his Academia.edu page.

Top Image: Detail of Nottingham City from a John Speed map, 1610 (Manuscripts and Special Collections, Not1.B8.C76)